Re-examining the Environmental Kuznets Curve Hypothesis in Nigeria: Recent Evidence from ARDL Model

  • Ali Kole
  • Shettima Alhaji Umar 2Department of Social Development, Mai Idris Alooma Polytechnic, Geidam, Yobe State
  • Abba Muktar 3Department of Public Administration, Mai Idris Alooma Polytechnic, Geidam, Yobe State
  • Abdullahi Mustapha Geidam Department of Marketing, Mai Idris Alooma Polytechnic, Geidam, Yobe state, Nigeria
Keywords: Carbon emissions, GDP growth, Trade integration, Environmental Kuznets Curve, Gross Domestic Income, Urbanization growth, Population growth


This study re-examines the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis in Nigeria over the 1980-2021 period. Applying the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, the estimated result shows the long-run co-movement of the variables included in the model. However, the model fails to support the EKC inverted U-shaped hypothesis during the study period. The long-run estimates found that increase in Gross Domestic Income, Trade integration and GDP growth will significantly lead to reduction in CO2 emissions. Meanwhile, increase in urbanization growth and population growth will significantly result to increase in CO2 emissions in the long-run. The result of population growth on CO2 emissions is quite alarming, thus, the study recommends for government intervention in collaboration with private sector to ensure smooth transition to a cleaner technology with a view to curb the environmental pollutants thereby achieving the sustainable development goal.